After years of two digit growth figures in China the economy is about to slow a bit down for what IMF believes will be a soft landing. The main drive for this change is the situation in Europe, which does not seem to improve anytime soon. However, the domestic Chinese market seems to be a driver.
I have touched on the subject of China many times in this blog and have warned about what can be perceived as a growing bubble. The speculation in housing has had many similarities to what we saw in Ireland, Spain and Portugal just on a much much large scale. Driven by large scale growth in the area of 10 % the Chinese economy have been a steam train without breaks or at least nobody was willing to scout for all the dangers that lay on the tracks. But now are the first signs that things are about to change and that we are after all interconnected even if we would like to think it is not the case.
Chinese has the second largest economy the world after the U.S. and in 2011 it expanded by 9.2% a figure that European governments can only dream about, but for China these represent the first figures that points in the direction of a slowdown. The economic growth in 2011 was thus lower than in 2010 and country’s statistical authorities expect a even further slowdown in economic activity.
Economic growth was in the fourth quarter, less intense than in the previous quarter but still a bit higher than economists had predicted. Production from China’s millions of factories rose in 2011 by 13.9 percent compared to 2010 but also the improvement was less than the year before. Retail sales, an important indicator of citizens’ private consumption expanded by 17.1 percent. Again also a bit slower than in 2010.
And despite the general slowdown economists do not expect a catastrophic slowdown as we saw in the US and Europe, But then again so did economists in US and Europe in 2007. As one Li Hiyong from the finance house Shenyin Wanguo in Shangha said “The actual growth in the quarter of 8.9 percent indicates that our economy remains in good condition and stable. The risk of an abrupt slowdown in economic growth is thereby diminished.”
While these figures are quite impressive they are indications that things are changing in the Chinese economy. First of all, China is still heavily relying on exports for their growth and with the slowdown in the economies in general they are vulnerable to changes in consumer behavior. Secondly, a lot of companies are taking production home or closer to their markets reversing the outsourcing flow that we have seen. One of the main reason why is because of the recession and the advantages of mass production in Asia is becoming less attractive. Third, wages in China are rising at an alarming rate some estimates puts the figures at above 20%, which have fueled the housing bubble and will eat up the advantage of producing in china. This should be compared with the 0-2% wage raise that we see in most European countries.
I will not say that the Chinese bubble will burst tomorrow but in my mind there is structural issues in the economy that will lead to a sharp corner and it is closing fast. China has a lot of money in the bank and they just might be able to pull through using their reserves to counter the downturn. However, it is imperative that the country starts to have a more conservative outlook in their economic and development of their social systems if they are not going to end up driving into a very big brick wall.